For the past five seasons I have written up an NCAA Tournament preview that had been limited by word counts. Well, no word counts anymore, mother fuckers! With all this available space, I am going to pick every game, as well as give you the projected Pomeroy score for every first round game.
As for the title of this posting, I have finished second in 4 office pools in the last five years. I never win these fuckers, but I always get my money back!
FIRST ROUND
Midwest
Louisville v.Morehead St./Alabama St
Pomeroy: ASU: 66-64
Morehead is sophomoric funny! Alabama St. has a guy named Chief Kickingstallionsims! Louisville will beat either by 30!
Ohio St./Siena
Pomeroy:OSU 75-72
If this wasn't in Dayton, I would think Siena wins going away. I still think they win. They are going to try and push pace and if it works they will be in good shape. I like the Saints and not only because BJ Mullins has a mexistache.
Utah/Arizona
Pomeroy: Utah 70-68
Arizona has more talent than Utah, I presume. I know nothing about Utah. Where the hell did they come from? I don't know. Arizona seems to have some Villanova '08 potential, so I'll pick them, I guess
Wake Forest/Cleveland St.
Pomeroy: Wake 72-66
It isn't crazy to say Wake Forest is the most talented team in the country. The problem is that they are all freshmen and sophomores, and they, like their coach, have no tournament experience. They could lose here, they could win the national title. Who the fuck knows. I think they win here, though. Cleveland St. will just have to be remembered as the team that made Boeheim fight a microphone in December.
West Virginia/Dayton
Pomeroy: WVU 68-57
I like the Mountaineers a lot. Very underrated. Chris Wright is a beast for Dayton and I like that the Flyers go ten deep. Too much Ebanks, though.
Kansas/North Dakota State
Pomeroy: Kansas 80-71
All you need to know about the Bison is that they play with a white out. Five crackers at a time. I bet Kansas will be the more athletic team. Most of the NDSU players are from Minnesota and this in Minny, so it could be like a mini home game. I think this game is going to be close. NDSU can make 3s and Kansas is very young outside of Sherron Collins. Ben Woodside put up 60 in a game this year. I won't pick the Bison, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won.
Boston College/USC
Pomeroy: USC 70-66
Unless Tyrese Rice goes apeshit, USC should win this game.
Michigan St./Robert Morris
Pomeroy: Michigan State 74-60
Bobby Morris was known as the financier of the Revolution. He signed the Declaration of Independence. He was fucking loaded. His namesake university is going to get their asses handed to them.
West
UConn/Chattanooga
Pomeroy: UConn 87-62
Chattanooga's name is the Mocs. They are named for the state bird of Tennessee, the mockingbird. Tanzanian people eat Mockingbirds, I think. And if not, 7'4" people should at least be able to swat them away.
BYU/Texas A&M
Pomeroy: Mormons 75-69
How many people will be at the Wach for a 12:30 tip between BYU and Texas A&M? A couple thousand? Will Andy Reid be there? Can BYU play a white out? What happens if they played NDSU? Does anyone have strong feelings about this game? Does it matter? BYU is 0-5 in their last five tourney first rounds. Lee Cummard is good though. I guess I like the Cougars. Blah.
Purdue/Northren Iowa
Pomeroy: Purdue 67-59
I have nothing to say here. Purdue wins. As an aside, I am picking these games off a bracket sponsored by Observe and Report. How many movies can come out in a calendar year about mall security guards? Was this a missing genre of American film making I was unaware of?
Wahington/Mississippi State
Pomeroy: Washington 80-72
Washington's star freshman guard is named Isaiah Thomas. He was given this name because his father was a huge Lakers fan, and lost a bet during the Finals when the Pistons beat LA. You can't make this shit up. His mother could not have been pleased about this. At all. Also, the SEC is horrendous and the PAC 10 is underrated. This is being played in Portland.
Marquette/Utah St.
Pomeroy: Warriors 75-69
Poor Marquette. If Jerel McNeal doesn't stop guarding Dweeze, they probably don't have to go to Boise to play Utah St. Utah St. is certainly capable of winning this game, but I think Matthews and McNeal gut one out. The Aggies can't handle guards like that, methinks. I just heard the Decemberists in a commercial for a romantic comedy. Guh.
Missouri/Cornell
Pomeroy: Mizzou 81-67
Nothing says bad matchup for an Ivy League school than "Athletic team that presses". Don't think this is going to happen for the Big Red.
Cal/Maryland
Pomeroy: Cal 74-71
This should be a very good game. Both teams have good guards and absolutely zero inside presence. A pick em game in pretty much every way. Who ever makes more 3s probably wins. Give me Cal, I guess. Either team is going to get slaughtered in the second round.
Memphis/Cal State Northridge
Pomeroy: Memphis 76-58
Ask yourself this-when was the last time you saw Memphis play? Last April, maybe? They are the best defensive team in the country and it isn't close.
East
Pitt/East Tennessee State
Pomeroy: Pitt 86-68
Dejuan Blair averages more offensive rebounds a game than 9 division 1 basketball teams.
Oklahoma St./Tennessee
Pomeroy: Tennessee 81-80
This game is going to be fucking awesome. Both teams play up tempo and run. Neither plays particularly impressive defense. Both teams are super talented (OK St has 3 McDonalds AA) but have fatal flaws. Tennessee has no point guard and turns it over. A lot. OK St plays 4 guards, but they don't rebound like the 06 Nova team did. There will be a lot of points and it should be close. Give me Tennessee.
Florida St/Wisconsin
Pomeroy: Wisconsin 61-60
Florida St is the tallest team in America. Toney Douglas is probably the best player you have never seen at guard. I think this game is a toss up though and I find it crazy Pomeroy think Wisconsin wins. Both teams guard and can't score. It is the anti Tenn/OSU game. I think Wisconsin wins, but if I was filling out a pool I take Florida St because....
Xavier/Portland St
Pomeroy: X 75-64
I think Portland State wins this game. X is 5-5 in their last 5 games and it hasn't been against any one great. X has no point guard. I don't trust teams like that in the NCAAs. They are ranked under 250th in the country in both turnovers and creating turnovers. One of the big advantages the big guys usually have is they force a ton of turnovers. I don't think Xavier will do that. X also doesn't guard the three all that well. Portland St. shoots the three well above national average. They were in the tourney last year and won at Gonzaga this year, so they shouldn't be intimidated. Here is Cinderella.
UCLA/VCU
Pomeroy: UCLA 75-66
This is the chic upset pick, but I don't see it. I understand VCU has NBA players, but so does UCLA and they are all used to going to the Final Four. Ben Howland is a great tourney coach. I get that they have to travel across country, but that won't matter until Saturday.
Villanova/American
Pomeroy: Nova 71-58
To save time and energy for future rounds, I will point out every game we have lost this year fits a pattern. Also, if someone wants to run with us, we win. The exception is UConn and we only lost that game because AJ Price turned into Michael Jordan. Remember this, it'll come up again.
Texas/Minnesota
Pomeroy: Texas 64-63
Texas has national championship talent everywhere but (here it comes again...) point guard. It is really hard to win in the NCAAs without point guard play. Texas is much better talent wise, but Minnesota slows the game down and defends. If they can dominate pace and force turnovers they can certainly win this game. I will take Texas though, because Minnesota only has one person to score and I don't trust teams like that either. That one player is Brian Westbrook's cousin, though.
Duke/Binghamton
Pomeroy: Duke 83-62
The fighting Kornheisers don't stand much of a chance against Duke in Greensboro.
South
UNC/Radford
Pomeroy: UNC 98-70
Radford is this years winner of "I don't know what their team name is" contest. They are the Highlanders, apparently. Roy Williams is going to have to retreat to the high lands if he loses this game.
LSU/Butler
Pomeroy: Butler 66-65
What an uninteresting game. It'll probably be close, but neither team is going anywhere. It will be played in the high 50s or low 60s. Meh. I'll take Butler, the SEC sucks.
Illinois/Western Kentucky
Pomeroy: Illinois 67-58
If Chester Frazer doesn't play, this will be a win for the Hilltoppers and it may not be close. Illinois defends like crazy, but struggles to score. Without Chester they will really struggle to score. I think WKU wins, but taking Illinois isn't unreasonable. This gives me three 12s over 5s which seems a bit much, but there is some really unimpressive teams on the 5 line.
Gonzaga/Akron
Pomeroy: Gonzaga 74-61
Pomeroy and I both like Gonzaga more than most people. I can't get them taking UConn to overtime out of my mind. They can score, they can defend, they rebound, and they have NBA talent. I think they win here pretty easy.
Arizona St./Temple
Pomeroy: ASU 63-58
I think this a bad matchup for the Owls, which sucks cause I really wanted to see Serge win a tourney game. I figured that Temple was going to have the best guard on the floor, but that is James Harden in this game. Temple can win, because Arizona St. plays slooooow and they don't create turnovers. This game is probably going to be Harden v. Christmas I think. I'll take the Devils.
Syracuse/SF Austin
Pomeroy: Cuse 69-59
If Syracuse feels like defending, they can make the round of 8. If they don't feel like defending, they will beat Stephen F Austin.
Clemson/Michigan
Pomeroy: Clemson 74-69
This is one of those great NCAA tournament games because the two teams are so different. Clemson pressures full court and wants to run. Michigan plays 1-3-1 and walks up the court looking for backdoor cuts. This is a big game in the office pool world, because it is not silly to think the winner of this game makes the round of 16. Give me the coach who has proven he can win tournament games.
Oklahoma/Morgan St.
Pomeroy: Oklahoma 77-62
Has a mid February national title contender ever fallen out of the media's favor faster than this Oklahoma team? Not a single ESPN analysts had them getting to the 8 last night. Think Morgan State has ever played a number one pick before?
SECOND ROUND
Midwest
Louisville/Siena
Louisville cruises. They have a real beef if they have to play Ohio St in Dayton, though they would still crush them. Louisville note: Terrence Williams used to walk around his high school with a Barbie backpack to be "different" OOOOOOkay.
Wake Forest/Arizona
You remember that talent disparity I talked about Arizona having against Utah? They don't have it here. Every game that I pick Wake to win I shudder a bit.
West Virginia/Kansas
I hate to jump on the trendy second round upset pick, but West Virginia is going to win this game. The only time Bill Self wins in March is when his team is so talented and experienced that he almost can't lose. That isn't the case this year. I'd also be wary picking Kansas here due to their ability to lose to NDSU as well.
USC/Michigan State
The loss to Ohio State this weekend was the first game the Spartans lost all season with a fully healthy Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton. Tom Izzo builds teams, Tim Floyd gets players. Guess who does better in March? Izzo has also only lost once in the tourney the second day of the weekend. He is something like 12-1 in the second round/elite 8/championship game. That is fucking insane.
West
UConn/BYU
I can't see UConn losing here. BYU is a nice team with a star player but they can't hang here. UConn got a real cakewalk 8/9 game under them.
Purdue/Washington
Let me amend that: UConn got a real cakewalk to the elite 8. This should be a really good game though. Good defense on both sides, better offense from the Huskies. Big shot in the final minute by Jon Brockman gets Washington out of Portland.
Marquette/Missouri
This would be a fantastic game with Dominic James. It is asking alot of Maurice Aker to beat this press. The total reliance on guards who will get worn down in this type of game dooms Marquette. Mike Anderson goes to the Sweet 16, Alabama's offer to him goes to 2.5 million.
Cal/Memphis
Have I mentioned how great Memphis' defense is? Because its phenomenal. Memphis wins here, and they win big. Have I mentioned the Memphis defense?
East
Pitt/Tennessee
Teams without point guards who turn the ball over a ton don't beat one seeds. Pitt/Okie St would actually be a much better game, because the Cowboys would spread the floor (like Nova and Providence) and drive right at Blair. Blair would have like 25/25 in that game too. I think I have managed to create a rooting interest in an 8/9 game. Pitt wins either game, though.
Florida St/Portland St
I take Florida St over Wisconsin because I don't want to be forced into putting Wisconsin or Portland St into the Sweet 16. Yeah I am real coward. Florida St gets themself into a Sweet 16. I don't like that either. What a meh foursome. If I have to place their liklihoods and reaching the Sweet 16, I would go FSU 35%, Wisconsin 30% Portland St 20% Xavier15%.
UCLA/Villanova
You know how UCLA is built on defense? Slowing the game down and grinding out wins? Yeah, not this UCLA team. You know what UCLA doesn't do? Guard the 3. 275th in the country according to Pomeroy. You know what they do really well? Score. 3rd in offensive efficiency according to Pomeroy. They also don't shoot free throws, which would suggest they don't go down low very often. We are really good when Cunningham isn't in foul trouble, and Dante shouldn't have too much trouble with that here. Villanova will make this team run with them, and they don't lose games like that, especially at home. And this is a home game.
Duke/Texas
Texas can play with Duke, except that whole point guard thing comes up again. If this game wasn't in North Carolina, I would think Texas might be able to make it a game.
West
UNC/Butler
Speaking of games being played in North Carolina, Butler has no shot at winning two of them.
WKU/Gonzaga
I love that WKU's best player is named Orlando Mendez-Valdez. He might be the fourth best player on the Zags. The Zags get to the Sweet 16 for the first time since Adam Morrison's tears stained the court.
Arizona St./Syracuse
I really wish I knew if Cuse was going to defend in this game. I think they can outscore the Sun Devils regardless though. Jonny Flynn and Harden could put on a great duel here. This is going to be one of the best games of the tournament. Cuse stay hot.
Oklahoma/Michigan
If Oklahoma plays Michigan, they win. If Oklahoma plays Clemson, they lose. Ah, fuck I am changing my mind. Put Clemson into the Sweet 16. Clemson plays alot like Missouri, and Oklahoma looked like a high school team against Missouri.
Sweet 16
Midwest
Louisville/Wake Forest
This will be a battle. There is a minimum of six first round draft picks in this game. Also, whoever wins this game makes the Final Four. If Wake plays to their potential they win this game. I don't trust putting them into the Final Four though, so I will take the Ville. If everyone comes back to Wake next season, that team is going to be a monster. If you are looking for a non top two seed to put in the semifinals, this is it.
West Virginia/Michigan State
This will be a battle. Potential best game of the second weekend. Neither team gives an inch, they both rebound and defend. They also have enough guys capable of scoring that it is unlikely they get shutdown completely. Ehhh, give me West Virginia in a Big East homer pick. Also, I know this is in Indy but West Virginia travels like crazy. This will be no home type atmosphere for the Spartans even though it is Big Ten Country.
West
UConn/Washington
If I am Louisville, I am really pissed that they got Wake as their four seed while UConn got Washington. With the Ohio St in Dayton potential, they got no favors. Seattle is far enough from Glendale that I think that is mostly a non factor. These teams have played two Sweet 16 classics before (Rip Hamilton over Todd MacCullough in the 90s and Brandon Roy against the world in '06) and both were UConn wins. The Huskies win here too, but I don't think it is a classic.
Memphis/Missouri
Have I mentioned the Memphis defense yet? My biggest concern with the Tigers here is they haven't played a top level team in nearly two months when this game gets played. Calipari has gotten over that hump before and I think he does here as well. Memphis' only concern here is Tyreke Evans against the press, but Evans plays the press every day in practice.
East
Pitt/Florida St.
I am filling out my first bracket of the year as I type this and I realize that I didn't put a double digit seed in the round of 16. Meh. I probably should have put Wisconsin here, but whatever. Pitt murders Wisconsin. Florida St can hang with Pitt due to their height inside could bother Blair and Toney Douglas is a big game player, but Levance Fields never turns the ball over and this would be the Sam Young show.
Villanova/Duke
I think we win here and we win pretty easy. Duke is a UCLA clone that scores just as well but defends better. However, we are a terrible matchup for them. UCLA is a bit bigger on the perimeter than Duke, and size causes us problems on the perimeter (see Louisville, Texas, Georgetown, and West Virginia). Nolan Smith is listed as 6'2. Henderson is only 6'4. Scheyer is 6'5 but he can't guard Reynolds or Fisher so he is going to waste away against Redding. Elliot Williams is 6'4 (really?!) but isn't physical enough to bother Reynolds. I am even willing to list the guards a wash, but here is how we win this game. Dweeze and Redding can bother Henderson and Singler ALOT more than Singler and Lance Thomas will bother Dante or Shane. Frankly, this should be one of those games when Clark and Redding get 15 boards. Think Cuse and Marquette games. Dante wont have to expend energy guarding any one. He can chill with Lance Thomas or Zoubek or any other scrub Duke throws out there. He is going to go for 25 and 12. Oh, and they will gladly run with us. If Dante doesn't get in foul trouble somehow and Henderson doesn't score 40 and we still lose this game, I will walk home from Boston. It is more likely we losee in Philly to UCLA.
South
UNC/Gonzaga
These two teams, with basically the same cores, played at MSG two years ago and the Zags won. Other than that I don't see any evidence to think Gonzaga wins here if Ty Lawson is healthy. Better at almost every position unless Austin Daye blows up. Daye is the best player who wasn't on the floor two years ago, but for some reason Bobby Frasor started over Ty Lawson. I don't think will Roy make that mistake this year.
Syracuse/Clemson
How good are the ACC and Big East this season. This is the fourth Sweet 16 game between ACC and Big East teams. I know that seems a bit much, and when you count UNC and WVU that makes ten of 16, but yeah. The top five in the Big East and top 3 in the ACC I think are pretty much locks. And West Virginia, Florida State and Clemson aren't really a stretch. I think this game is a toss up, but the ACC is due one. Send Clemson through, don't feel ridiculous doing the same with Cuse.
Regional Finals
Midwest
Louisville/West Virginia
Like I said, I think the winner of the Wake/Lville game heads to Detroit. These two teams played a regional final that went into overtime went West Virginia blew a pretty big lead in 05. That was a conference ago for the Ville and a coach ago for WVU. This won't be as close. Lville gets through.
West
Uconn/Memphis
Have I mentioned Memphis defends? Like, really really well? I can't believe I am going to do this, but I think Memphis gets through the West. Fucking Calipari.
East
Pitt/Villanova
The beautiful draw ends. I know we beat Pitt earlier this year, but I can't see it happening on a neutral floor. Cunningham will have to guard someone. Sam Young will bother someone. Levance Fields won't turn it over. We lose. Oh well.
South
UNC/Clemson
UNC beat Clemson by 24 in January. They will only win by 14 in March, but yeah. Syracuse/UNC would be fun because the score will be in the 90s, but the result be the same.
FINAL FOUR
Louiville/Memphis
Old School Conference USA battle. I think Memphis can win this game. It is esentially a tossup. I am not sure if I mentioned it, Louisville really defends. They are second in defensive efficiency. Memphis is going to have score to win this game and I am not sure they can because, again, they haven't played anybody in two months. If they go out and score 75 against UConn, I think they win this game. Without that knowledge, give me Louisville. If Calipari gets to back to back title games with freshman point guards, it would be an all time amazing feat. And then he is going to get John Wall next year and start all over. Ridiculous.
UNC/Pitt
I think these are the two best teams in the country. The most enjoyable part of this game will be watching Blair absolutely abuse Hansbrough. I would guess Tyler's thoughts will be something like, "WOWMANTHISDEJUANGUYISSTRONGHEISREALLYFASTTOOWOWTHISHURTSWORSETHAN TEXASSTYLEPINGPONG." That being said, if Blair gets in foul trouble (and have you ever seen a UNC game?) Pitt will struggle to win this game. On pure talent UNC is better, and you have think last year's seminfinal still stings. Send Carolina to Monday night.
FINALS
We should just skip the next three weeks and get to it: Big East Champion against ACC Champion. Samardo Samuels won't bother Hanbrough like Blair, but he will make him work on offense and defense. The best wing player in the game will be wearing red. I can promise you at least one team will bring the intensity on defense, and it won't be North Carolina. However, Ty Lawson, if healthy, is a HUGE advantage at the point. I think either Green or Ellington needs to make shots, but if they do this is Carolina's tournament to lose.
RECAP
Okay, under 1500 characters old AIM profile style:
Upsets: Zona, Portand St, Western Kentucky, USC
Potential Upsets: Wiscy, ND St., Utah St., Temple
Potential Sleeper Sweet 16 Teams: Wiscy, WVU, OK St., Clemson/Mich
Nova? Great draw gets us to the Elite 8.
Final Four? Ville over Memphis, UNC over Pitt, UNC over Ville
Best Potential Games 1st weekend: OSU/Siena, Kansas/NDSU, Marq/Utah St., Cal/Maryland, OK St./Tenn, Zona St./Temple, WU/Kansas, Purdue/Wash, Pitt/Ok St, Nova/UCLA
This took me 3.5 hours. I'm tired. Enjoy the madness, go Cats.
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